Monday, 7 November 2022

Monthly Equity Outlook - Oct - 2022 - George Thomas, Quantum Mutual Fund

 

Equity Outlook – November 2022

The S&P BSE SENSEX advanced by 5.8% on a total return basis in the month of Oct 2022 while S&P BSE Midcap Index & S&P BSE Small cap Index advanced by 2.0% and 1.3% respectively. Most of the sectoral indices gained during the month. Banks, Capital goods, and Tech indices recorded relatively higher growth. Advance in Banks was fuelled by stable asset quality trends and the persistence of high credit growth along with improving interest margins. IT companies reported reasonable growth with stable order books despite global uncertainties. Capital goods companies have reported healthy order inflows supported by a pickup in public Capex and are seeing signs of private Capex revival. Healthcare, Consumer Durables, and FMCG indices were laggards during the month. Consumer Durables and FMCG companies' results have been mixed with few companies reporting lower than expected growth.

Though US inflation remains high, US GDP is estimated to be back in the expansion zone in Q3 after two-quarters of contraction. A relief rally was seen in S & P 500 (+8.1%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (+14.1%) during the month. The challenging environment in the majority of emerging markets was reflected in the persistent declining trend in the MSCI EM index (-3.1%).

Amidst rising interest rates in the US, FPIs continued to be sellers in Indian markets to the tune of USD $0.5 bn. Domestic institutional investors were buyers with purchases worth USD 1.2 bn. Since the start of the calendar year 2022, FPIs have recorded a net outflow of USD 22.3 bn while DIIs recorded a net inflow of USD 33.7 bn.

Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund (QLTEVF) saw an increase of 4.2% in its NAV in the month of October 2022. This compares to an increase of 4.1% in its Tier I benchmark S&P BSE 500 and a 4.5% increase in its Tier II Benchmark S&P BSE 200. IT, Banks, and PSUs were major contributors to the marginal outperformance. Cash in the scheme stood at approximately 6.4% at the end of the month. The portfolio is valued at 12.2x FY24E consensus earnings vs. the S&P BSE Sensex valuations of 17.0x based on FY24E consensus earnings.

India’s Relative Outperformance is supported by robust earnings growth:

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